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Peace Process

'Look to the north' - Veteran US advisor on ME tells Obama


By Stan Goodenough
December 28, 2008

Hope for peace in the Middle East right now lies with Syria, and the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama should concentrate its efforts there.

This advice was given Sunday via CNN by Aaron David Miller, a former advisor to six secretaries of state on Arab-Israeli negotiations, and a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center in Washington DC.

"The fact is that there is one agreement possible between Arabs and Israelis and that's an Israeli-Syrian agreement," he said.

"The odds that you can get Hamas and the Israelis or even [PA Chairman Mahmoud] Abbas and the Israelis to come to a conflict-ending agreement anytime soon are probably slim to none, and today's events have only made an already complex situation that much more difficult."

Miller posited three reasons why he believes the chance of securing an Israeli-"Palestinian" agreement to be remote.

The huge issues that still divide the Israelis and the Palestinian Arabs; the crisis of leadership within the Palestinian Authority (Hamas controls Gaza and Mahmoud Abbas sits in Samaria) and the divisions in Israel that will take the country to the polls on February 8.

Asked whether "a new president" could contribute to ending the conflict Miller warned that the expectations on the shoulders of President-elect Obama were "dangerously high."

The "tone of American policy will change," he agreed, and there would be a "serious effort" on behalf of the new administration.

"But ... unless the Israelis and Palestinians are prepared - which they are not right now - to take the political decisions required to overcome the gaps and to sell an agreement to their respective constituents, there's not much a new president, no matter how bold or charismatic he may be, is going to be able to do about that."

That's why, Miller argued, while it was "important" to keep hope alive on the Palestinian-Israeli track, "Obama ought to try and test, seriously, the prospect of an Israeli-Syrian agreement."

It was important to try and identify an objective that a new administration can achieve.

"It makes very little sense to go after an agreement that cannot be attained. In fact, America is only going to fail [if we do that] and the last thing we need right now is a failure."

"If you want to reach an agreement in the next two years, look north."

Miller has been mentioned as a prospective special envoy to the Middle East in the incoming administration.

UPI reported Sunday evening that Obama initiated a call to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Saturday to discuss Israel's actions in Gaza.

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