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Peace Process

Pullout won?t end violence or lessen pressure


By Jerusalem Newswire Editorial Staff
February 23, 2005

Israel’s retreat from the Gaza Strip and northern Samaria is likely to exacerbate relations with the Palestinian Authority and lead to a renewal of Islamic terrorism against the nation’s Jewish population.

So said Foreign Ministry researchers Tuesday, contradicting Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s assertion that his “disengagement” plan would result in increased security for Israelis.

While Israel sees the withdrawal as a preliminary step and wants to move slowly on the diplomatic front, Mahmoud Abbas’s PA is interested in condensing the Road Map “peace” plan and moving quickly to final status talks, a ministry expert said.

The terror groups would see Israel’s failure to comply with “Palestinian” demands as justification for reviving their campaign of mass murder.

Abbas is expected to exploit US President George W. Bush’s desire to fully implement the Road Map by the end of his term by seeking to skip phases of the plan concerning the elimination of “Palestinian” terror groups.

Israel’s view

Sharon’s government sees the planned withdrawal from Gaza and northern Samaria as a preliminary step to reinvigorating the Road Map process and improving Israel’s standing on the world stage.

Foreign Ministry Middle East expert Benny Dagan told Ynet is at this point focusing on the prerequisites for restarting peace talks, mainly a concerted effort by the PA to eliminate the threat of “Palestinian” terrorism.

“Israel's position is that [the Palestinians] are still in the midst of the phase prior to the map's implementation,” Dagan said.

Phase one of the Road Map requires the Palestinian Authority to both disarm and dismantle the terrorist organizations operating out of areas under its control, something Abbas insists he won’t do.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Marc Regev told CNS News that the Road Map “says clearly [that it's] a staged process based on performance,” and Israel will wait until the PA actually performs before proceeding.

Regev’s boss, Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, told the Knesset committee he had explained to his European counterparts that until the PA removes the terror groups, Israel will continue to see itself in a “pre-Road Map” phase.

The PA’s view

The Palestinian Authority, however, is looking to capitalize on the election of Abbas, which was widely hailed in the West as marking a new era of cooperation and peace.

“Palestinian” Minister Saeb Erekat explained it would take time for the PA to reorganize its “infrastructure and security … and resume control,” but that this could be done in parallel to final status negotiations.

In the Foreign Ministry’s annual intelligence report to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, ministry official Harry Knei-Tal said Abbas was expected to try to “skip over” the second stage of the three-stage Road Map.

Ministry officials believe that following the Gaza withdrawal, Abbas will declare the completion of the PA’s obligations, pointing to the current ceasefire and relative calm as a substitute for dismantling the terrorist infrastructure.

According to the Road Map, a Palestinian Arab state with provisional borders would then be established, while negotiations move to a permanent settlement.

Heading for a collision

Israel, however, is adamant that sidelining the PA’s obligation to eliminate terror and moving directly to final agreement talks is a recipe for disaster.

“As long as groups remain armed, it can turn everything upside down,” Regev said.

IDF intelligence chief Brigadier-General Yossi Kuperwasser told his Knesset overseers on Tuesday that the terror groups were using this time of quiet to rearm and plan for a new terrorist offensive.

And this was being done without serious interference from the PA.

Israel’s failure to comply with PA demands to speed up the Road Map process would likely be used by the terrorists as justification for renewing hostilities.

Road Map shortcut

The PA’s effort to accelerate the birth of “Palestine” is expected to find an ally in Bush, who, Knei-Tal pointed out, is keen to conclude the Road Map process by the end of his second term.

It is anticipated that in the coming months, Abbas will become more and more a welcome guest at the White House, and could even obtain a letter of guarantees from the president, the Foreign Ministry researcher said.

Sharon, meanwhile, continues to maintain that retreating from Gaza and northern Samaria will result in less international pressure on Israel.

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