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Peace Process

Analysis: Pullout likely followed by war


By Ryan Jones
July 06, 2005

A special session of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Tuesday left the impression that Israelis can expect to face increased Palestinian Arab terrorist warfare following and as a result of the planned withdrawal from Gaza and Samaria.

Military Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. Aharon Ze'evi Farkash told the committee that anti-Jewish Arab violence was expected to drop immediately following implementation of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's ?disengagement? plan.

However, shortly thereafter, ?Palestinian? terrorism would reach unprecedented levels if additional Israeli concessions were not forthcoming, Farkash stated.

Farkash noted that the strategic goal of groups such as Hamas was to repeat the perceived terrorist victory in Gaza by manufacturing rockets in Judea and Samaria and launching artillery attacks on nearby major Israeli population centers.

An article on the official Hamas website backed up that assessment, pointing out the short distance between PLO-controlled towns in Judea and Samaria and the Israeli cities of Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Netanya.

Sharon followed up Farkash's briefing by repeating that, in accordance with the US-backed Road Map, there would be no diplomatic progress towards peace following the disengagement until the PA fulfilled its security obligations.

But even top US officials, citing the current state of affairs and the PA's track record, expressed little hope the ?Palestinian? leadership would live up to its side of the bargain.

?Overall, Palestinian performance in confronting violence has been far from satisfactory, and this is a real shortfall and area of concern,? Assistant Secretary of State David Welch told the House Foreign Relations Committee last week.

As PA compliance is clearly not expected by either Israel or Washington, and Sharon appears adamant he will finally stick to his guns regarding ?Palestinian? reciprocity, there seems to be little Israelis can look forward to following disengagement but a terrorist war of attrition on a scale surpassing the last five years.

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