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War on Terror

Israel has lost northern deterrent

Iran-backed Hizb'allah forces now deter Israel


By Ryan Jones
March 05, 2006

A prominent Israeli analyst has suggested that instead of Israel deterring greater Iranian/Hizb'allah aggression along its northern border, the opposite is in fact true.

Ha'aretz's Ze'ev Schiff writes that Tehran has cleverly used the smokescreen provided by its nuclear program to build up a tangible strategic threat to the Jewish state just tens of kilometers from major Israeli population centers.

"While the world is busy only with [Iran's] efforts to acquire nuclear arms, it has managed over the years, through a sophisticated move in cooperation with the Syrians and Hizb'allah, to build an array of rockets in southern Lebanon that could harm Israel over long ranges."

Military estimates published over the past several months put at 12,000 the number of Katyusha, Fajr and other rockets aimed at northern Israel.

Schiff notes that the mere ability to scare some two million Israelis into bomb shelters and the resulting cessation of work and schooling, let alone the expected casualties and damage if the missiles were actually launched, constitutes a strategic threat.

But it is not only a strategic threat. This missile array, according to Schiff's calculations, now represents a deterring factor that is preventing Israel from adequately responding to it and other threats against its citizens, as Jerusalem sticks to a policy of safeguarding regional economic interests and the illusion that things really aren't so serious.

"[Israel has] decided to base itself on a strategy of bed-and-breakfasts and skiing, according to which it is best not to really respond to harm, kidnappings and provocations lest it endanger the tourism."

One can only imagine this deterrent will be utilized in the near future to thwart any American or Israeli efforts to take out Iran's nuclear capabilities.

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