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Analysis: Expect Hizb'allah to attack

With its back to the wall, Tehran will be looking to create a diversion


By Ryan Jones
January 12, 2006

The international community is set to refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council, and possibly go even further if the tough words coming out of Washington and London are to be taken seriously, over Tehran's defiant efforts to obtain nuclear weapons.

After years of diplomatic haggling, former Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani, who now heads the powerful Expediency Council, announced Thursday that the conflict with the West over Iran's nuclear program ?has become very serious and has reached its climax.?

Rafsanjani's remarks on state-run Iranian radio coincided with a joint statement from the foreign ministers of Germany, Britain and France that negotiations with Tehran have reached a ?dead end,? and that Security Council sanctions are now the only viable course of action.

Experts from Israel to Europe to the United States agree that Iran is at least a year or two from possessing a nuclear weapon and thus being able to act on the recent threat by its current president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to ?wipe Israel off the map.?

In the absence of a long-range nuclear missile strike on the Jewish state, the most climactic move Iran can make at this time is to give the Lebanese terrorist organization Hizb'allah the green light to unleash the thousands of rockets it has aimed at northern Israel.

Both Iran and Syria have long used their Hizb'allah proxy to launch attacks on Israel in order to divert international attention from their own devious activities.

Tehran has never needed such a diversion as much as it does now.

Most observers concur that a massive Hizb'allah strike on northern Israel resulting in numerous casualties would elicit a powerful Israeli response on both Lebanon and Syria, leading most likely to the wider regional conflagration Hizb'allah has long sought.

In the midst of the fray, Iran's nuclear program would take a back seat on the international agenda.

It may seem a farfetched scenario, but the world must be prepared for anything from a man who openly advocates the eradication of an entire nation and the spiritual leaders who taught him to think that way.

The last time a leader wielding such potentially destructive power spoke in such terms, Adolf Hitler overran Europe and set in motion events leading to the deaths of tens of millions worldwide.

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