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Analysis: Abbas buys time for terror


By Ryan Jones
Sep 12, 2005

PLO chief Mahmoud Abbas Monday cleverly sought to buy a reprieve from what was sure to be stiff international pressure and a harsh Israeli military response following any major attack by Gaza-based terrorists on Israelis in the coming months.

?Give me until the end of the year and I will be able to control the chaos in Gaza,? Abbas told the Italian daily Corriere della Sera.

All too often that ?chaos? is the source of unchecked artillery attacks on Israelis living in the western Negev region.

Following the completion of its ?disengagement? from Gaza, Israel Monday repeatedly vowed to unleash unprecedented military force against the strip should rocket and mortar attacks persist ? and they certainly will.

Abbas' well-timed statement was aimed at blunting that threat.

Because of that statement, Washington will likely continue to insist that Abbas is trying and is committed to making peace, this despite the fact that he never acts on his promises. If the past is anything to go by, Israel will meanwhile hold itself in check, not wanting to upset its American ally's peace efforts with heavy-handed military action.

The predicted result, which is backed by a decade of precedence, is that Israel will hit Gaza hard if any Israelis are actually killed in artillery strikes on the western Negev, but that attacks without casualties will elicit no or weak responses.

This will have the effect of further eroding Israel's deterrent factor in the eyes of the Palestinian Arabs, almost guaranteeing the deaths of at least some Negev residents in the coming months.

What everyone should have been paying attention to was Abbas' reiteration to the same Italian paper that he has no intention of disarming those killers most dedicated to Israel's demise.

?There is no point at the moment, it would be a useless step that would be destined to start a civil war,? said the PLO chief, who has never spared even a glancing thought for Jewish life.


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